America’s apartment landscape has become a tale of two opposing rent trends. Rents are climbing in the Bay Area and the Midwest, while much of the Sun Belt is still sliding.
National same-store asking rents edged up 1.7% from a year earlier in October, the biggest annual gain since May 2023, apartment industry data firm RealPage reported Nov. 11.
The national figure hides a wide gap. San Francisco rents jumped 14.7%, evidence of why city officials are pressing the supply button to drive housing construction. San Antonio rents dropped 2.6%.
The month-over-month picture illustrates less dramatic change. RealPage showed that rents fell 0.7% in October, the first monthly cut of 2026. The company said the annual gain came less from strong pricing than from weak months dropping out of the calculation, making for stronger year-over-year comparables.
Other trackers show the same upward drift, with different monthly readings. Yardi Matrix reported rents up 0.1% in October, with annual growth of 1.4%, the strongest in more than three years. Apartments.com put annual growth at 1.6%, even as rents slipped 0.15% for the month.
Supply wave cools
Supply and demand are edging toward balance. RealPage said renters absorbed nearly 304,800 conventional apartments in the year ending in Q3 2026. Developers completed nearly 318,000 units over the same period, almost half the late-2024 peak.
Occupancy eased to 95%, down 20 basis points from September. It is still up 40 basis points this year and 10 basis points above October 2025.
Landlords hit the brakes
Improving rents haven’t translated into a property buying spree. Camden Property Trust, a large apartment landlord, walked away from two acquisitions and canceled two planned development projects. The Federal Reserve’s rate hike was a main reason, rental economist Jay Parsons wrote on LinkedIn.
Two deals under contract fell through after the hike, Camden CEO Alex Jessett said on the third-quarter earnings call. Camden asked for lower prices, and the sellers declined.
Buying also beat building on cost. Camden bought an asset at about $370,000 a door, while building it would have cost north of $600,000, Jessett said.
Camden’s earnings show an unevenly improving market. Funds from operations, a standard earnings measure for real estate investment trusts, were $1.70 per diluted share in the third quarter. Core funds from operations were $1.71, $0.02 above the company’s guidance midpoint.
“A higher-for-longer rate environment may equate to a lower-for-longer supply environment,” Parsons wrote.
Fewer projects penciling out means fewer new apartment options for renters.
Coasts and Midwest lead
Northern California took the top three spots for rent power among the 50 largest markets, RealPage said. San Francisco rose 14.7%, San Jose 9.5% and Oakland 8.5%. All three are running near 97% occupancy.
Midwest metros fill much of the rest of the top 10. Milwaukee led at 4.2%, followed by Chicago at 3.3%, and Kansas City and Cleveland at 3.1% each. Detroit and St. Louis each gained 2.7% and just missed the cut.
Sun Belt still lags
Most Sun Belt and Florida markets continued to decline. The South as a region returned to annual growth, but only by 0.5%.
San Antonio had the deepest decline in rents among big markets at 2.6%. Its occupancy of 92.5% was the lowest of the 50 largest markets. Houston fell 1.8%, followed by drops in Tampa of 1%, Charlotte of 0.9% and Denver of 0.8%.
Several Sun Belt markets have turned the corner, however. Jacksonville rose 2.6%, Raleigh 1.0%, Atlanta 0.8%, Austin and Miami 0.6% each, and Phoenix 0.4%.
