The global economy is expected to grow 2.4% in 2026, according to Visa Business and Economic Insights’ (VBEI) 2026 Midyear Global Economic Outlook. While higher energy prices are squeezing household budgets and creating fresh challenges, a surge in business investment—particularly in artificial intelligence, clean energy, and strategic industries—is helping offset the strain on consumers and keep the economy moving forward.
“As digital commerce continues to reshape how people shop and pay, consumers are finding more ways to compare prices and stretch their budgets, helping to keep inflation in check,” said Wayne Best, chief economist at Visa. “We’re also seeing business investment rising sharply, with companies building out AI, clean energy and stronger supply chains at levels we haven’t seen since 2010—a trend that is helping support global growth.”
The report explores three forces shaping the global economy: resilient consumers adjusting rather than retreating, digital commerce acting as a relief valve on prices, and a wave of business investment powering through uncertainty.
Consumer spending is adjusting, not collapsing
Even as higher costs weigh on household budgets, VBEI data shows discretionary spending holding relatively steady—evidence that consumers are adapting their behavior and seeking deals rather than pulling back sharply. Increasingly, that deal-seeking is happening online, where shoppers can compare prices and find lower-cost alternatives more easily than ever.
Digital commerce helps contain prices
In smaller, “peripheral” cities, online adoption has nearly doubled since before the pandemic—rising from about 31% to 56% across the nearly 600 cities VBEI analyzed. The trend spans markets as varied as Bern, Switzerland, and San Juan, Puerto Rico, where online shopping has climbed sharply since 2019. As more shoppers gain the power to compare prices and find alternatives, these markets are seeing stronger competition and lower inflation, helping ease the pressure on households as energy costs climb.
A global investment boom is powering growth
The global economy has entered its strongest industrial investment cycle since 2010. Capital spending by the world’s three largest economies—the U.S., EU, and China—is rising in tandem as businesses race to build out AI capabilities, transition to cleaner energy sources, and secure strategic supply chains. This broad-based uptick in investment is helping carry the economy.
Key Takeaways
Are consumers pulling back as costs rise?
Visa economists describe the current environment as “more like adjustment than collapse.” Even as higher costs weigh on household budgets, discretionary spending is holding relatively steady, with tentative signs of firming—evidence that consumers are adapting their behavior and seeking deals rather than retreating. This also marks a softer starting point than earlier in the decade, which should limit how high prices ultimately climb.
How is digital commerce helping?
By giving consumers more ways to find value. As online shopping spreads beyond major hubs into smaller, “peripheral” markets, shoppers can compare prices and find lower-cost alternatives more easily. Markets with higher online penetration are seeing stronger price competition and lower inflation—extending the inflation-constraining effects of digital commerce into more communities.
