A lower home price doesn’t necessarily mean a more affordable home.
Consider a buyer looking at a $450,000 home when the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 5.98% in February. With 20% down, the monthly principal and interest payment would be approximately $2,154.
Now imagine that buyer finds a home priced at $395,000, but mortgage rates have climbed to 7.40%. The monthly payment increases to approximately $2,188.
The home costs $55,000 less, yet the buyer would pay about $34 more each month, excluding taxes and insurance.
That disconnect helps explain why lower-priced housing markets aren’t necessarily experiencing stronger demand. Even substantial price reductions may offer little relief when higher financing costs offset the savings.
As HousingWire Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami has discussed in this week’s Housing Market Tracker, mortgage rates near 7% remain a significant headwind for housing demand. The pressure extends beyond expensive coastal cities and markets that experienced the most dramatic price increases.
HousingWire Data shows weakening contract activity in Omaha, Nebraska; Huntsville, Alabama; and Tulsa, Oklahoma, where median asking prices remain below $400,000.
The three markets have followed different paths, but eight-week comparisons from late August through mid-October reveal a common trend: Fewer new pending contracts relative to the number of homes entering the market.
Omaha’s housing slowdown has been building for three years
Omaha has experienced a steady decline in contract activity relative to new listings.
During the comparable eight-week period, the market averaged approximately 122 new pending contracts for every 100 new listings in 2024. That fell to 109 in 2025 and 94 in 2026.
Active inventory has increased from approximately 1,940 homes in October 2024 to 2,350 in October 2026. Meanwhile, weekly absorbed counts have declined from levels frequently exceeding 300 homes in 2024 to roughly 180 to 255 in 2026.
Prices have been more resilient.
Omaha’s median active asking price is $388,375, up 1.7% year over year. About 31.8% of active listings have experienced a price reduction, compared with 29.7% a year earlier.
The relationship between newly listed homes and existing inventory is also changing.
A year ago, the median asking price of newly listed homes was approximately $82,000 below the median for all active listings. That gap has narrowed to about $29,000, with new listings carrying a median asking price of $359,000.
Differences in the types of homes entering the market could explain some of that change. Still, Omaha illustrates a market where contract activity has weakened considerably without a corresponding decline in the overall median asking price.
Huntsville’s stronger market has lost momentum
Huntsville’s slowdown is more recent.
The Alabama metro averaged approximately 98 new pending contracts per 100 new listings during the comparable eight-week period in 2024. That improved to 105 in 2025 before falling to 84 in 2026.
Over the latest four weeks, the ratio has ranged from approximately 64 to 77.
Homes are also spending more time on the market.
Median active days on market increased from approximately 70 in 2024 to 76 in 2025 and 82 in 2026 during the comparable periods.
Huntsville’s median active asking price is $361,900, down 3.5% year over year. About 40.9% of active listings have experienced a price reduction, and months of inventory stands at approximately 4.1.
Unlike Omaha, Huntsville is experiencing both weaker contract activity relative to new listings and a decline in its median asking price.
But even lower prices may not provide enough relief to offset elevated mortgage payments, particularly for buyers whose purchasing power is already constrained.
Tulsa’s slowdown is clearer over time
Tulsa’s latest weekly figures show a sharp decline, but the longer-term trend provides a more useful perspective.
For the week ending Oct. 16, the market recorded approximately 65 new pending contracts per 100 new listings, compared with 118 during the same week in 2025.
That year-over-year difference is amplified by a particularly strong comparison week last year.
Across eight comparable weeks, Tulsa averaged approximately 103 new pending contracts per 100 new listings in 2024, 97 in 2025 and 87 in 2026.
The gradual decline is less dramatic than the latest weekly reading but provides a clearer picture of the market’s direction.
Tulsa’s median active asking price is $334,900, down 1.5% year over year. Nearly 48% of active listings have experienced a price reduction, while months of inventory stands at approximately 3.6.
Like Huntsville, Tulsa is showing signs of pricing pressure alongside weakening contract activity. Yet its median asking price remains substantially below the national figure.
Lower home prices aren’t solving the affordability problem
The national housing market reflects the same tension between supply, demand and financing costs.
For the week ending Oct. 16, active single-family inventory reached 905,166 homes, up 5.3% year over year.
New listings increased 1% to 61,402, while new pending contracts fell 13.1% to 51,947.
The national median active asking price was $434,900.
Omaha, Huntsville and Tulsa all fall below that level, but their lower asking prices haven’t prevented a deterioration in contract activity relative to new listings.
Pricing pressure is also evident across all three markets. Price reductions have affected 31.8% of active listings in Omaha, 40.9% in Huntsville and 47.6% in Tulsa. Yet weaker contract activity relative to new listings suggests that price adjustments alone have not been enough to restore momentum.
That doesn’t mean mortgage rates alone caused the slowdown in these markets. Local incomes, employment conditions, housing supply and the types of homes available also influence purchasing decisions.
It does, however, illustrate why lower prices and improved affordability are not interchangeable.
For buyers, a meaningful reduction in the purchase price may translate into only a modest change in the monthly payment when mortgage rates rise.
For sellers, that means pricing decisions must account for what buyers can afford to pay each month, not simply how a home compares with historical asking prices.
The next signals to watch are whether pending activity stabilizes, how inventory responds and whether asking prices adjust as competition changes.
The broader takeaway is that the housing slowdown isn’t confined to the nation’s most expensive markets. Even where homes cost less, elevated financing costs can limit the benefit of lower prices and leave buyers on the sidelines.
Data source and methodology
Housing market data is sourced exclusively from HousingWire Data, using single-family residential properties across all price quartiles. Weekly figures are through Oct. 16, 2026. Historical metro comparisons use eight corresponding weeks from late August through mid-October in 2024, 2025 and 2026.
Pending-to-new-listing ratios represent the average of eight weekly ratios of new pending contracts to new listings. They do not measure the percentage of homes listed and sold in the same week. Median asking prices reflect active listings unless otherwise specified, and differences between active and newly listed properties may reflect changes in property mix.
Mortgage payment methodology: Payment comparisons are illustrative and assume a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage with a 20% down payment. Calculations reflect monthly principal and interest only and exclude property taxes, homeowners insurance, mortgage insurance, HOA fees, closing costs and other ownership expenses. They do not account for total interest paid or lifetime borrowing costs.
HousingWire Intelligence charts provide city-level historical context alongside the metro-level analysis.
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