The midterm elections have the potential to upend everything from politics to business to the stock market. But the person most impacted by Tuesday’s results could be President Donald Trump, and that, in effect, could determine the course of his final two years in office.
On the political front, the battle to control Congress is key, with a number of seats in play, including 435 in the House of Representatives and 35 in the Senate.
Should the Democrats gain control of the House (and, perhaps, even the Senate), the voting public will have broken the Trump administration and Republicans’ stronghold over Congress.
“The midterms matter in general because they determine whether there is alignment between the executive and the legislative branches,” Harvard Business School professor Vincent Pons said in an interview earlier this year. “Oftentimes, voters vote against the party of the president. Some voters have a preference for divided government, to have checks and balances. If the Republican party was to lose the midterms, either the House or both the House and the Senate, it could have dramatic consequences in terms of circumventing the power of [the administration].”
A Democratic upset could check Trump’s power, paving the way for a lame-duck presidency for the remainder of his term. A blue sweep could also give Dems the votes they need to investigate the president’s finances, his administration’s immigration policies, and bring another impeachment.
In August, Michigan Democrat and Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed told CNN, “The first thing we’re going to do when [the Democrats] win this Senate seat? Hold Trump accountable. Then, on to the real work—taking on big corporations, taxing billionaires their wealth, and guaranteeing healthcare through Medicare for All.”
Back in January, Democratic Representative Micah Lasher of New York posted a road map for Congressional oversight should the Democrats regain control of the House: “Check the Trump administration’s lawlessness by making clear that illegal activity and corruption will be investigated, and by spurring criminal prosecutions or impeachments; focus the American public on the illegal and corrupt activity that gets lost in the daily barrage of news and distraction out of the White House; and shape the narrative of the 2028 elections and help Democrats win back the White House and grow our majority.”
In California, Democratic Representative Robert Garcia said he plans to look into the White House’s immigration policies, and “demand accountability” for the tactics used by Immigration and Customs Enforcement—the fallout of which would likely influence the 2028 presidential election.
In July, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, a New York Democrat, said, “When you put us back in charge of the United States House of Representatives, you’ll get a Congress that speaks up for everyday Americans and a Congress that stands up to an out-of-control president.” Jeffries emphasized that to beat Republicans, Democrats were focused on healthcare costs, bringing down the high cost of living, and ending the war in Iran.
A divided Congress, with Republicans maintaining their majority in at least one branch, could result in major political gridlock for the remainder of Trump’s term, which could have major repercussions for business.
If Republicans can hold on to their seats, that could empower Trump to accelerate his domestic agenda and policies on key issues like defense and AI—with those government-connected sectors seeing continued growth, and banks and cryptocurrencies retaining lighter regulation.
