Housing affordability is on ballots across the country this fall, and not just in races for state and national office.
Voters in California, Florida and Massachusetts will decide direct questions on Nov. 3 about zoning, permitting and property taxes.
Early voting doesn’t begin for a couple of weeks in Massachusetts and Florida. Florida requires 60% approval for constitutional amendments. Voting has started in California, where a simple majority wins.
Massachusetts has the most interesting hurdle to clear. It needs more than a simple majority to pass. “Yes” votes must also equal at least 30% of all ballots cast in the election.
If voters approve, the change would cap minimum lot sizes for single-family homes statewide, the first such ballot questions put to voters in the country.
The challenge is making sure voters get to the question. It is the seventh on a nine-question ballot, tying the record for the most statewide questions in Massachusetts history. Housing advocates worry that voters may tire before they reach it or skip a question they don’t understand.
“There’s risk of voter fatigue,” Jesse Kanson-Benanav, executive director of Abundant Housing Massachusetts, told HousingWire TBD.
The housing question is competing with higher-profile fights. Voters are also being asked whether to repeal recreational marijuana, weigh in on recent gun law changes, change how primaries work and cap state revenue growth.
What Question 7 would do
The measure would cap minimum lot sizes at 5,000 square feet. It would apply only to residentially zoned lots with at least 50 feet of frontage and access to public water and sewer.
Boston is excluded because the city has taken its own steps. The cap would reach most of the state’s populated areas but leave out most of Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard, Nantucket and the Berkshires.
More than half of Eastern Massachusetts towns now require at least an acre per single-family lot, and some require two.
The Massachusetts Municipal Association opposes the measure but still hasn’t formed a campaign committee to spend against it. The state Republican Party also opposes it but hasn’t mounted organized opposition.
Meanwhile, Republican gubernatorial candidate Mike Minogue supports the measure as he tries to unseat Gov. Maura Healey, who also backs it.
Supporters have raised heavily. The Legalize Starter Homes campaign has raised more than $1.7 million, with major contributions from real estate groups.
Abundant Housing Massachusetts has launched a field operation to turn out supporters. Backers pitch the measure as one way to address the state’s housing affordability challenges, with a message built on smaller, lower-cost homes on smaller lots.
Kanson-Benanav said no measure has ever won a simple majority and still missed the 30% mark. Housing supply advocates aren’t taking any chances.
The measure’s odds improved when the state’s Supreme Judicial Court ruled that a controversial rent stabilization measure had to come off the ballot. Healey and others strongly opposed that measure, which could have fractured the loose coalition backing lot reform.
Voters would have had to choose between the two, vote “yes” on both or reject one or both. With rent stabilization gone, housing advocates across the board could focus on a single affordability measure, Kanson-Benanav said.
California: Proposition 45
Proposition 45 would set deadlines for environmental reviews and court challenges under the California Environmental Quality Act. It would cover housing, water, energy, education, health and transportation projects.
Agencies would generally have 365 business days to finish a full environmental impact report, and courts would have 270 days to resolve challenges.
The measure would also cap public-comment periods, narrow tribal consultation and limit judicial review. Opponents say that weakens environmental safeguards. Supporters say it would make approvals more predictable.
Early voting began Oct. 5.
Unlike in Massachusetts, one of the most influential “yes in my backyard” organizations is staying on the sidelines. California YIMBY announced on social media Friday that it has no recommendation on Proposition 45.
The group backed several successful legislative changes this year, including two laws curtailing CEQA, and major reform of the law last year.
“The measure affects housing, but its broader impact falls on non-housing projects, so we encourage voters to weigh both sides and decide for themselves,” the organization posted.
Florida: Amendment 3
Amendment 3 would raise the homestead exemption from $50,000 to $150,000 in 2027 and to $250,000 in 2028, then index it to inflation. It would also cut the annual assessment cap on non-homestead property from 10% to 5%.
It needs 60% approval and has been given a slim chance of passing. A University of North Florida poll in July found support fell from 61% to 45% after voters learned about the budget impact.
The measure has engendered broad-based opposition. State economists project a $12 billion annual hit to local governments. Palm Beach County’s administrator says as many as 10 municipalities there could become insolvent if voters approve the measure.
Opponents hold a lopsided lead in organizing. Florida Realtors is the most prominent backer.
